A buyer’s market is a market where supply outpaces demand enough that buyers gain leverage — more inventory to choose from, more room to negotiate price and terms, and less pressure to waive protections like inspections. Did it actually arrive when I predicted it back in June 2022? Not right away, and not as fast as the early signs suggested. I called the shift in real time, laid out five things buyers should expect and five things sellers should prepare for, and said plainly that Montgomery County was still a seller’s market at that moment — just one starting to crack. Looking back at that call now is a useful case study in how these transitions actually unfold, because they rarely flip overnight. They erode, one data point at a time, and reading the early signals correctly matters more than waiting for the headline to catch up.
What is a buyer’s market, and how do you know one is coming?
A buyer’s market shows up in the data before it shows up in the headlines — rising inventory, slowing demand, and buyers gaining room to negotiate are the tell. In June 2022, I was watching three things move at once: mortgage rates, buyer participation, and days on market. None of them individually screamed “buyer’s market.” Together, they were impossible to ignore. Rates had jumped roughly two full percentage points since January, buyer demand was visibly thinning, and Montgomery County still only had a three-to-four week supply of homes — nowhere near the two-to-three month supply that typically marks a genuine shift in leverage. That gap between “the trend is turning” and “the market has turned” is exactly where buyers and sellers make their biggest mistakes, because they react to the headline instead of the underlying number.
Why did rising interest rates matter so much in 2022?
Rising rates mattered because they hit buying power directly, not just monthly payment comfort. On a $500,000 loan, the jump from around 3.25% in January to roughly 5.5% by June turned a $2,176 principal-and-interest payment into $2,839 — a difference of about $663 a month, or close to $8,000 a year. That’s not a rounding error. It represented roughly 25% less purchasing power for the exact same buyer in the exact same five-month window. Anyone who tells you “a couple points on the rate doesn’t matter much” hasn’t run the math on a real loan amount. This is the single biggest lever in any rate-driven market shift, and it’s worth tracking against national data — theNAR research and statistics hubis a solid place to see how rate moves have historically tracked with buyer demand over time.
Did buyers actually leave the market?
Yes — roughly a quarter of active buyers dropped out entirely as rates climbed through the first half of 2022. Some gave up on their own once the math stopped working. Others got priced out entirely as their pre-approval amount shrank along with their budget. Either way, the effect on the ground was the same: fewer people competing for the same homes. That’s the first domino. Less competition doesn’t create a buyer’s market by itself, but it’s the precondition for one. If you’re a buyer wondering whether now is a smart time to get back in, that’s exactly the kind of shift worth discussing — myguide to buying a homewalks through how to read these conditions before you commit to a search.
Did inventory actually increase the way I predicted?
Inventory did start climbing in the second half of 2022, though the increase was gradual, not a flood. Fewer active buyers meant homes that would have gone under contract in days started sitting longer, and sellers who might have listed and sold within a week found themselves competing for attention instead of fielding multiple offers on day one. That’s the mechanical link between buyer pullback and inventory growth — it’s not that more sellers suddenly showed up, it’s that fewer transactions were closing at the same pace, so listings accumulated. I track this kind of shift constantly for both buyers and sellers, and the current numbers are always posted on mymarket stats pagerather than buried in a single video update.
Did negotiating power actually shift to buyers?
Negotiating power shifted, but only partially and only for buyers willing to be patient. By late 2022, buyers who stayed in the game started getting real concessions — sellers picking up closing costs, home inspection contingencies coming back into contracts, appraisal and financing contingencies that had been waived for two straight years suddenly reappearing. None of that was normal during 2020-2022. It became normal again as the market cooled. Sellers didn’t like it, but the ones who adjusted their pricing and prep work early sold faster and with fewer headaches than the ones who held out for 2021-style terms.
Did sellers actually have to lower expectations?
Sellers who didn’t adjust their pricing expectations paid for it in extra days on market. The comparison I made at the time still holds: your neighbor’s multiple-offer sale from six months earlier is not a guarantee of your outcome today, especially once buyer purchasing power has dropped 25% in the interim. The sellers who priced at or slightly below recent comps, invested in condition and staging, made repairs proactively, and budgeted for a possible home warranty or closing cost credit were the ones who transacted smoothly through the transition. The ones who chased the old market learned the hard way that pricing too high in a shifting market doesn’t just delay the sale — it makes the home look stale and actually suppresses the final price.
FAQ
Did Montgomery County actually become a full buyer’s market in 2022?
Not immediately. As of June 2022, the county still had only a three-to-four week supply of homes — a seller’s market by any standard measure. The shift toward buyer leverage was building underneath that number, but a true buyer’s market (typically a two-to-three month supply or more) took longer to fully materialize.
What’s the single biggest sign a buyer’s market is approaching?
Watch three things together: rising interest rates cutting into buyer purchasing power, buyers dropping out of active searches, and inventory climbing as homes take longer to sell. Any one alone can be noise. All three moving the same direction at once is signal.
Should sellers panic when they hear “buyer’s market coming”?
No — but they should adjust. Pricing realistically from day one, investing in condition and staging, and handling repairs before listing all matter more in a transitioning market than they did during the frenzy of 2020-2022.
Are seller concessions like closing cost credits common in every market?
No. They largely disappeared during the seller’s market years and only came back as buyer leverage increased. Whether they make sense depends entirely on current local conditions, not a blanket rule.
How do I know what phase Montgomery County’s market is in right now?
Current inventory levels, days on market, and rate trends tell the story better than any single headline. Check mymarket stats pagefor the latest local numbers, or just reach out directly and I’ll walk you through it.
Markets don’t flip on a headline — they shift gradually, and the buyers and sellers who read the early signals correctly are the ones who come out ahead. If you’re trying to figure out where Montgomery County stands right now and what that means for your next move, let’s talk it through.
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Sources and next steps
Verified local sources:Montgomery Planning development dashboard;Montgomery Planning development review process;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery County Open Data.
Related Kevin guides:home buying guide;relocation guide;book a call.
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Expanded local research sources:Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;MCPS School Assignment Tool;MCPS school boundaries;MCPS boundary study;Maryland School Report Card;GreatSchools Montgomery County schools;Reddit thread: are MoCo schools still worth it?;GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data.
Contextual links for this video
Kevin site links:home selling guide;home buying guide;market stats;If I Were Moving to Washington DC in 2026, I’d Move to Gaithersburg — Here’s Why;The #1 Mistake Buyers Make When Moving to Montgomery County — And How to Avoid It.
Outside research links for this video:Montgomery Planning development;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning interactive maps;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.
Kevin process link: why Kevin’s local process matters.