Back at the start of 2023, Zillow published its annual list of “bold predictions” for the housing market, and I broke them down for my Montgomery County clients at the time. Looking back now, it’s a useful exercise: Zillow called for more friends and family buying homes together, a stabilizing affordability crisis, a surge in first-time landlords, and a construction shift toward rental housing. None of these were particularly bold, in my opinion, but they were directionally accurate. Low inventory, cautious builders, and buyers getting creative with financing defined the year. Here’s what Zillow predicted, what actually happened, and why revisiting old forecasts matters if you’re trying to understand where the Montgomery County market is headed next.
What did Zillow predict for the 2023 housing market?
Zillow’s team put out four bold predictions heading into 2023: more co-buying among friends and family, a stabilizing affordability crisis, a wave of first-time landlords, and a pivot in new construction toward multi-family rentals instead of single-family homes. Each prediction was rooted in data from 2022 — a year defined by rapidly rising mortgage rates, stretched affordability, and a housing market adjusting to a new normal after the pandemic buying frenzy. I found the predictions reasonable, even if none of them felt like a genuine surprise. They read more like a continuation of trends already in motion than a bold leap into the unknown.
Did more friends and family really buy homes together?
Yes, and this trend kept building. Zillow’s research showed that in a 2022 survey, 18 percent of successful home buyers had purchased with a friend or family member who wasn’t a spouse or partner, and 19 percent of prospective buyers planned to do the same in the year ahead. The driving force was simple: home values had climbed well beyond what a single income or a single household could comfortably support, so buyers pooled resources to qualify for a mortgage and split the payment. In Montgomery County, I saw this show up in real conversations — siblings buying together, parents co-signing or co-owning with adult children, and roommates turning a rental relationship into an ownership stake. It wasn’t the norm, but it stopped being unusual.
Did the affordability crisis actually stabilize?
Partially. Zillow’s prediction was that monthly mortgage payments, which had roughly doubled since 2019, would level off as home values held flat, interest rates eased slightly, and rent growth cooled toward historical norms. Wages, meanwhile, had only grown about 23 percent over five years compared to 37 percent rent growth over the same stretch — a gap that made the affordability conversation urgent. What we actually got was a market that stabilized more through inventory scarcity than through relief on the interest rate side. Rates didn’t drop as much as buyers hoped, but home values in Montgomery County held remarkably steady rather than falling, which matched the “flat, not falling” part of Zillow’s call.
Did we see a surge in first-time landlords?
Yes, this is one of the predictions that played out clearly. The ultra-low mortgage rates locked in during 2020 and 2021 left a lot of homeowners holding properties with payments well below current market rent. As rent growth kept climbing, many of those owners realized they could turn a move-up purchase into a rental instead of a sale, generating income above their old mortgage payment while holding onto a low fixed rate. I watched several Montgomery County homeowners choose this exact path in 2023 — rather than sell and lose that rate, they held the property and rented it out. That decision, multiplied across thousands of homeowners, became one of the real drivers behind our stubbornly low resale inventory.
Did new construction really shift toward rentals?
Largely, yes. Zillow pointed out that single-family units under construction were up 42 percent from October 2019, leaving builders with a lot of product coming onto a market where buyer demand had cooled due to higher rates. Builders responded by pulling back on new single-family starts while multi-family construction — apartments and rental buildings — kept increasing, simply because if people couldn’t afford to buy, they still needed somewhere to rent. That shift is visible across the DC suburbs, where rental development kept pace even as single-family construction slowed. For Montgomery County specifically, this meant fewer new for-sale homes entering the pipeline, which added more pressure to an already tight resale market.
Why does revisiting an old prediction like this matter?
Looking back at forecasts like these isn’t about scoring Zillow’s accuracy for fun — it’s about spotting which trends had real staying power. The first-time landlord surge and the builder pivot toward rentals both turned out to be genuine contributors to the low-inventory environment that has defined Montgomery County ever since. When you understand why inventory stayed tight, you understand why well-priced homes here still move fast and why buyers need a real strategy instead of hoping the market loosens up on its own. I use this kind of historical analysis constantly when I’m advising both buyers and sellers on timing. You can dig into current local numbers yourself on mystats page, and Zillow’s own research team continues to publish market data atZillow Researchif you want to compare national trends to what we’re seeing here at home.
FAQ
Were Zillow’s 2023 predictions accurate?
Mostly, yes. The predictions about first-time landlords and builders shifting to multi-family construction proved especially accurate and directly shaped Montgomery County’s low inventory levels through 2023 and beyond.
Why did so many owners become landlords instead of selling?
Owners who locked in low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021 found they could rent their homes for more than their mortgage payment, making renting more profitable than selling in a higher-rate environment.
Did home values actually stay flat in Montgomery County?
Values held largely steady rather than dropping significantly, which lines up with Zillow’s prediction, though local results varied by neighborhood and price point.
Is co-buying with friends or family still common in 2026?
It’s become a more normalized strategy, especially among younger buyers facing affordability pressure, though it requires clear legal agreements before moving forward.
How does this history help me buy or sell today?
Understanding what drove the last few years of low inventory helps set realistic expectations on pricing, timing, and competition — something I walk every client through personally.
If you want to talk through what these trends mean for your own buying or selling timeline in Montgomery County,contact medirectly — I’m happy to break it down for your specific situation.
Follow Kevin:
YouTube|Instagram|Facebook|LinkedIn
Ready to talk strategy? Book a free 30-minute call with me here.
Sources and next steps
Verified local sources:Montgomery Planning development dashboard;Montgomery Planning development review process;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery County Open Data.
Related Kevin guides:market stats;relocation guide;book a call.
Watch the YouTube videoorbook a 30-minute strategy call with Kevin.
Expanded local research sources:Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;MCPS School Assignment Tool;MCPS school boundaries;MCPS boundary study;Maryland School Report Card;GreatSchools Montgomery County schools;Reddit thread: are MoCo schools still worth it?;GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data.
Contextual links for this video
Kevin site links:home buying guide;market stats;If I Were Moving to Washington DC in 2026, I’d Move to Gaithersburg — Here’s Why;The #1 Mistake Buyers Make When Moving to Montgomery County — And How to Avoid It;Downsizing in Maryland? The 3 Best Communities and the Mistakes That Lead to Regret.
Outside research links for this video:Montgomery Planning development;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning interactive maps;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.
Kevin process link: why Kevin’s local process matters.