In October 2023, pending home sales nationwide fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years. Contract signings dropped 1.5% from September and were down 8.5% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by mortgage rates that had climbed to their highest point in over two decades. The National Association of Realtors pointed to a simple math problem: rates were pricing buyers out, and limited inventory meant the buyers who stayed in the game were fighting over too few homes. But here’s what the headlines missed — a national sales slump and a healthy local market can exist at the exact same time. That’s exactly what happened in Montgomery County, Maryland, and it’s a case study worth understanding if you’re trying to make sense of today’s market swings.
What caused pending home sales to hit a 20-year low?
Mortgage rates did. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, said plainly that October’s contract signings hit their lowest point in 20 years because mortgage rates were at their highest point in that same stretch. Rates that high knock buyers out of qualifying range entirely, and the ones who still qualify get more selective, slower, and more cautious. Combine that with inventory that hadn’t recovered from the pandemic-era freeze, and you get a market where fewer people are writing offers, and the ones who do write offers often lose to a higher bidder. Yun’s own words captured it well: multiple offers only ever produce one winner, and everyone else goes back to searching.
Did Montgomery County follow the national trend?
Yes and no. New pending contracts in Montgomery County dropped 7.3% from the previous month and 20.1% compared to October of the year before — numbers that track closely with the national slowdown. If you stopped reading there, you’d assume Montgomery County was in trouble. But sales volume is only one metric, and it’s not the one that tells you whether it’s still a good time to sell a house here.
Were home prices actually falling in Montgomery County?
No — they were rising. Year-to-date through October, the average home price in Montgomery County climbed 3%, from $690,000 to roughly $711,000. That’s the opposite of what you’d expect if you only looked at the sales-volume headline. Fewer transactions doesn’t mean falling values. It means fewer people were transacting, but the ones who did still paid more than they would have the year before.
Were sellers still getting full price for their homes?
Yes, and then some. Year-to-date, the average home in Montgomery County sold for 101.1% of list price. That means sellers, on average, closed above their asking price. Homes were also selling in about 19 days on average, compared to 17 days the year before — a one or two day difference that’s basically a rounding error, not a market shift. Put those two numbers together and you get a market where homes still moved fast and still sold over asking, even while the national conversation was all doom and gloom.
Who actually felt the pain from a 20-year sales low?
Buyers did — not sellers. In Montgomery County, the drop in sales volume was rough for people trying to buy, because they were dealing with higher rates and getting outbid in multiple-offer situations. But sellers, real estate agents, and mortgage lenders were still operating in a market that behaved like a seller’s market: rising prices, fast days on market, and sale prices above list. That split matters. A “20-year low in sales” headline sounds like the whole market is struggling. In reality, it described a buyer’s affordability problem layered on top of a persistent seller’s market.
What did this mean heading into 2024?
It meant rates would keep dictating the pace. If mortgage rates held in the 7% range, I expected a strong first and second quarter of 2024, likely followed by the normal seasonal slowdown in Q3 and Q4. Home values were positioned to keep climbing through the first half of the year, then taper some as they typically do in the back half. If rates dropped meaningfully — meaning under 6% — I expected the market to take off again, and for more inventory to loosen up as homeowners who had been waiting on the sidelines for rates to fall finally accepted that 3-4% rates weren’t coming back anytime soon and moved forward with their plans anyway.
This is exactly why I tell buyers and sellers in Montgomery County to stop reacting to national headlines and start looking atlocal statsinstead. National sales data and local pricing data can — and often do — tell completely different stories. According to theNAR’s own research, the national picture is useful for understanding rate-driven trends, but it will never tell you what your specific neighborhood is actually doing.
FAQ
Did home prices crash when sales hit a 20-year low?
No. Nationally, prices held up better than sales volume did, and in Montgomery County prices actually rose 3% year-to-date even as contract signings dropped.
Was this a good time to sell a home in Montgomery County?
Yes. Homes sold for slightly above asking price (101.1% of list) and moved in about 19 days on average — both signs of a market still favoring sellers.
Why did pending home sales drop so much if home values were rising?
High mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the market or made them more cautious, which cut the number of transactions without cutting demand for the homes that did sell.
What should buyers have done in a market like this?
Get a clear picture of local numbers before assuming the worst. If you were shopping for a home in this environment, understanding financing options and realistic timelines mattered more than watching national headlines. Ourguide to buying a homewalks through exactly that.
Could this happen again?
Rate-driven slowdowns are cyclical. Watching local inventory, days on market, and sale-to-list ratio — not just national sales counts — is the way to tell if your market is actually cooling or just slowing down in volume.
If you’re trying to figure out what any of this means for your own move in Montgomery County, don’t guess based on national headlines.Contact medirectly and I’ll walk you through what’s actually happening on the ground.
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Sources and next steps
Verified local sources:Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;GCAAR housing market reports;FRED 30-year mortgage rate series;Maryland SDAT real property search.
Related Kevin guides:market stats;relocation guide;book a call.
Watch the YouTube videoorbook a 30-minute strategy call with Kevin.
Expanded local research sources:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;FRED 30-year mortgage rates;Maryland SDAT real property search;Zillow Montgomery County home values;Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;Visit Montgomery travel guide;Visit Montgomery restaurant directory;Tripadvisor Montgomery County things to do.
Contextual links for this video
Kevin site links:home buying guide;market stats;DMV Housing Market 2026: Is a Crash Coming or Are the Numbers Telling a Different Story?;Zillow Just Banned Private Listings — Here’s What Home Buyers and Sellers Actually Need to Know;10 Things You Should Never Say to Your Real Estate Agent When Selling Your Home.
Outside research links for this video:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing stats;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.
Kevin process link: why Kevin’s local process matters.