The headlines have been aggressive. Federal layoffs. DOGE cuts. Return-to-office orders. Cooling demand. Every week there’s another prediction that the DMV real estate market is about to collapse.

Kevin analyzed data fromBright MLS, Redfin, and Realtor.com. Here’s what the numbers actually say — not what the clickbait says.

Insight 1: Home Values Are Still Rising — That’s the Part Everyone’s Ignoring

Despite everything happening in the macro environment, home values across the DMV rose nearly 10% year-over-year from February 2024 to February 2025. Bright MLS projected another 4.7% increase through the remainder of 2025. Prices have not dropped. If you’re waiting for a massive price correction, you’ve been waiting while values have increased nearly 15% over two years.

That’s not a crash narrative. That’s a resilient market with sustained demand pressure.

Insight 2: Inventory Is Up — But Not Enough

Montgomery County’s active inventory was up 56% year-over-year in spring 2025. That sounds like a flood of supply coming to market. But here’s the context: 1,400 active homes across all price ranges, all property types, in a county with over a million residents. That’s not high inventory. That’s still very low inventory by historical standards. The 56% increase is real but it’s a percentage of a very small base.

Insight 3: The Federal Workforce Effect Is Real But Nuanced

The DMV accounts for approximately 12.5% of all federal civilian employees nationwide. Kevin cited analysis from George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis noting that every federal job supports additional private-sector employment through spending. If federal workforce cuts are as deep as proposed — Elon Musk and DOGE have discussed 75% reductions — the ripple effects on the DMV economy would be significant.

However: most of the federal workforce in the DMV is concentrated in DC proper and Northern Virginia, with Montgomery County carrying a higher share of private-sector and biotech employment. TheRockville-Gaithersburgcorridor’s major employers — NIH, FDA, and a dense biotech cluster — are more insulated than the Pentagon-adjacent Northern Virginia market.

Insight 4: Buyers Are Still There

Demand has softened. That’s true. But it hasn’t disappeared. Kevin’s observation from working directly in the market: there are still more buyers than sellers at most price points. The spring 2025 market was seeing that balance out somewhat, but multiple-offer situations were still occurring on well-priced, well-presented homes. The frenzied pandemic market is gone. A functioning seller’s market — with more choice for buyers — has replaced it.

Insight 5: Rates Are the Governor

The variable everyone is waiting on is mortgage rates. Rates elevated above 6.5-7% have functionally locked out a portion of the buyer pool and frozen many sellers (the “golden handcuffs” of 3% pandemic-era mortgages). Any meaningful rate drop loosens both sides of that equation simultaneously — more buyers qualify, more sellers list, and transaction volume picks up. Watch the Fed, watch the 10-year Treasury, watch inflation data. Those numbers drive this market more than any political headline.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Actually Do

Forsellers: pricing correctly has never mattered more. The market still favors well-priced homes in desirable areas, but overpriced homes are sitting. Days on market numbers are up. Buyers have more patience than they did in 2021.

Forbuyers: if you’re waiting for a crash, reconsider the strategy. Two years of waiting has cost roughly 15% in appreciated value. The better play is buying with rate flexibility — structure your purchase to refinance when rates drop rather than waiting indefinitely for a price correction that the data doesn’t support.

See thehome buyer’s guideandhome sellers guidefor the full process. Ortalk to Kevin directly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the DMV housing market crash in 2025-2026?

The data doesn’t support a crash scenario. Home values are still rising, inventory remains historically low, and buyer demand — while softer than the pandemic peak — is still present. A slow correction or price flattening is possible; a 2008-style crash requires fundamentally different conditions than currently exist.

How are DOGE cuts affecting Montgomery County real estate?

Montgomery County is more insulated than Northern Virginia or DC proper because its economy has more private-sector and biotech weight. However, federal contractor employment in the county is real and a significant reduction would have downstream effects.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Montgomery County?

For buyers planning to stay 5+ years — yes, in most scenarios. Waiting for a crash that isn’t supported by current data while values continue to appreciate is a costly strategy. Buy when your finances and life situation are ready, not based on market timing.

What is the current inventory level in Montgomery County?

As of early 2025, approximately 1,400 active listings across all property types and price ranges — historically low despite a 56% year-over-year increase.

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Sources and next steps

Verified local sources:Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;GCAAR housing market reports;FRED 30-year mortgage rate series;Maryland SDAT real property search.

Related Kevin guides:market stats;relocation guide;book a call.

Watch the YouTube videoorbook a 30-minute strategy call with Kevin.

Expanded local research sources:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;FRED 30-year mortgage rates;Maryland SDAT real property search;Zillow Montgomery County home values;Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;Visit Montgomery travel guide;Visit Montgomery restaurant directory;Tripadvisor Montgomery County things to do.

Contextual links for this video

Kevin site links:home selling guide;market stats;Zillow Just Banned Private Listings — Here’s What Home Buyers and Sellers Actually Need to Know;10 Things You Should Never Say to Your Real Estate Agent When Selling Your Home;Is the DMV Housing Market About to Crash? The Truth Behind the DOGE Layoff Headlines.

Outside research links for this video:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing stats;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.

Kevin process link: why Kevin’s local process matters.