Back in 2023, Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman went on CNBC and made a call that stuck with me: he said we had likely hit rock bottom on home sales volume, that prices would keep climbing even with mortgage rates near four-decade affordability lows, and that the slowdown squeezing markets like Montgomery County would last a long time because owners sitting on 3% mortgages simply weren’t going to sell. Looking back at that interview now, it holds up better than most housing predictions do. It wasn’t a crash story. It was a “low inventory, high prices, low sales volume” story, and that pattern is exactly what played out here in the DMV. I’m revisiting it because it’s a good gut check for how to read today’s headlines without panicking over the wrong numbers.

What Did Redfin’s CEO Actually Predict?

Glenn Kelman’s core argument was that higher mortgage rates were absolutely hammering sales volume, but they were not crashing prices. He pointed out that unlike the 2008 crash, homeowners in 2023 were not being forced to sell through foreclosure. Most had strong equity and historically low fixed rates, so instead of a wave of distressed inventory hitting the market, sellers simply held on. That combination, fewer transactions but no forced selling, meant prices kept grinding higher even as the number of deals closing dropped sharply. He also predicted this sales volume “crunch” would last a long time, not just a season or two.

Did Montgomery County Follow the National Pattern?

Yes, almost exactly. As of September 1, 2023, Montgomery County had recorded 6,513 sales year-to-date, down nearly 26% from the 8,753 sales over the same period the year before. At the same time, the average home sale price rose roughly 3.2%, climbing from about $698,500 to somewhere around $722,000. Fewer homes changing hands, higher prices on the ones that did. That’s the exact tension Kelman described on a national level, showing up locally, dollar for dollar.

Was This Really “Rock Bottom” for Home Sales?

On volume, it was close. Kelman noted that nationwide annual home sales had never dropped below roughly 4 million since sales tracking began, even during the 2008 crash, compared to the pandemic-era highs of around 6 million-plus sales a year in 2021 and 2022. I ran the same math locally: Montgomery County was on pace for somewhere between 9,000 and 9,500 sales for all of 2023, which lines up closely with the county’s 2008 low of 8,519 sales and is nowhere near the 2021 peak of 15,622. Add in that our population is roughly 10% larger than it was in 2008, and that low sales floor looks even more like a real bottom rather than a temporary dip. You can track how current activity compares on our <a href="market stats">Montgomery County market stats page</a>.

Why Weren’t More Homeowners Selling?

Because moving meant trading a 2.5% to 4% mortgage for something closer to 7%, and for most people that math simply didn’t work. This wasn’t a market of “want to sell” homeowners. It was a market of “have to sell” homeowners, meaning people relocating for a job, going through a divorce, dealing with a death in the family, or facing some other life event that forced a move regardless of rate. Everyone else stayed put, which is exactly why inventory stayed thin for so long and why that scarcity kept propping prices up even as buyer demand cooled.

What Should Buyers Take Away From This Kind of Forecast?

The main lesson is that waiting for a crash based on scary headlines rarely pays off. Prices kept rising through this period even as rates rose, because there simply weren’t enough homes for sale to satisfy demand. The upside for buyers was that competition thinned out considerably. Instead of going up against 10 to 15 other offers, buyers were often facing just one to three, and sometimes none at all, opening the door to real negotiating room on price, closing costs, and contingencies like inspection and financing. If you’re weighing a purchase now, our <a href="home buying guide">guide to buying a home</a> walks through how to build in that kind of leverage today.

What Should Sellers Take Away From This Kind of Forecast?

Even in a slower market, sellers were still in the driver’s seat, but pricing, condition, and presentation mattered far more than a year or two earlier. The days of listing anything and expecting a quick sale were over. Homes priced correctly, staged well, and marketed with a strong online and in-person presence still drew multiple offers and strong values. Homes that skipped that prep sat. If you’re thinking about listing, our <a href="home selling guide">guide to selling a home</a> covers what separates a home that sells fast from one that lingers.

What Does This Case Study Mean for Today’s Market?

The real takeaway isn’t the specific numbers from 2023, it’s the pattern. Rate predictions get a lot of attention, but the more reliable signal is almost always inventory. When owners have strong equity and low fixed rates, they don’t sell just because someone tells them to, and that scarcity keeps a floor under prices no matter what happens with sales volume. If you’re trying to make sense of what’s happening in Montgomery County right now, I’d rather show you the current data than have you guess from a national headline. Reach out through my <a href="contact Kevin">contact page</a>, or read more about how I approach this market on the <a href="/why-kevin">why Kevin</a> page.

For readers who want to dig into the national data themselves, Redfin publishes ongoing housing market research and commentary at <a href="source link target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">redfin.com/news</a>, and the National Association of Realtors maintains a deep archive of housing statistics at <a href="source link target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nar.realtor/research-and-statistics</a>.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the 2024 housing crash actually happen?

No. The widely discussed “crash” predictions for 2024 did not materialize in Montgomery County or nationally. Sales volume stayed low, but prices continued to hold up and, in most segments, kept rising because inventory never loosened up the way a crash would require.

Why didn’t higher interest rates bring prices down?

Because most homeowners weren’t forced to sell. Unlike 2008, there was no wave of foreclosures adding cheap inventory to the market. Owners with low fixed rates simply stayed put, so supply stayed tight and prices kept climbing even as fewer homes changed hands.

Is Montgomery County’s real estate market still competitive for buyers?

It depends on the price point and neighborhood, but well-priced, well-presented homes in desirable areas still draw multiple offers. The difference from the peak years is that buyers today are often facing a handful of competing offers instead of dozens.

Should I wait for prices to drop before buying?

Based on this pattern, waiting purely on the hope of falling prices has historically not paid off in this market. If you can afford to buy now, locking in today’s price and refinancing later if rates drop tends to be the stronger long-term play.

How do I know what’s actually happening in the market right now instead of relying on national headlines?

Local data is the best filter. Check our <a href="market stats">market stats page</a> for current Montgomery County numbers, or reach out directly and I’ll walk you through what I’m seeing on the ground.

Looking back at Glenn Kelman’s 2023 call, what stands out most is how well it held up simply because it focused on the fundamentals: inventory, equity, and what homeowners are actually willing to do, not just where rates might land. That’s the same lens I use with every client, whether you’re buying your first home or getting ready to sell. If you want a read on what’s happening in Montgomery County right now instead of a national guess, let’s talk.

Follow Kevin:

YouTube|Instagram|Facebook|LinkedIn

Book a free 30-minute strategy call with Kevin →

Sources and next steps

Verified local sources:Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;GCAAR housing market reports;FRED 30-year mortgage rate series;Maryland SDAT real property search.

Related Kevin guides:market stats;relocation guide;book a call.

Watch the YouTube videoorbook a 30-minute strategy call with Kevin.

Expanded local research sources:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;FRED 30-year mortgage rates;Maryland SDAT real property search;Zillow Montgomery County home values;Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;Visit Montgomery travel guide;Visit Montgomery restaurant directory;Tripadvisor Montgomery County things to do.

Contextual links for this video

Kevin site links:home selling guide;home buying guide;market stats;DMV Housing Market 2026: Is a Crash Coming or Are the Numbers Telling a Different Story?;Zillow Just Banned Private Listings — Here’s What Home Buyers and Sellers Actually Need to Know.

Outside research links for this video:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing stats;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.

Kevin process link: why Kevin’s local process matters.