A few years back, Compass co-founder and CEO Robert Reffkin sat down with CNBC to explain why housing wasn’t collapsing under high mortgage rates the way a lot of headlines predicted. His answer: inventory had bottomed out, buyers still outnumbered sellers, and life events he called “the 5Ds” — diapers, diplomas, diamonds, divorce, and death — kept forcing people to buy and sell no matter what rates were doing. I want to revisit that conversation as a case study, because the dynamic he described in that moment is exactly what played out here in Montgomery County, and it’s a pattern worth understanding no matter which direction rates move next.
What did the Compass CEO say about rates and inventory?
Reffkin said inventory had hit its low point and that rates alone weren’t going to fix the supply problem. He pointed out that even with mortgage rates making new highs at the time, buyers still outnumbered sellers — multiple-offer situations were still common in a lot of markets. His view was that inventory wouldn’t meaningfully loosen up until rates dropped into the 5% range or lower. Until that happens, he argued, the constraint isn’t demand — it’s supply. That’s a different story than the “market is dead” narrative a lot of people were repeating at the time, and it’s held up well as a framework for understanding why homes kept selling even when affordability got tighter.
What are the “5Ds” and why do they matter?
The 5Ds are the life events that force people to move regardless of interest rates — and understanding them explains why the market never fully freezes. Reffkin’s point was simple: rates change financial decisions, but they don’t change human ones. Here’s how each one played out in my own listing pipeline during that period.
Diapers.Growing families need more space. I saw plenty of young families stretch their current home longer than they wanted to because of rate pressure, but eventually a new baby forces the issue. You can delay a move for a while — you can’t delay it forever.
Diplomas.This one hits two generations at once. The graduate is entering the workforce and looking for their own place. Meanwhile their parents are staring at an empty nest — a house that’s too big, too much maintenance, in a school district they no longer need. I worked with several clients in exactly that spot, deciding between downsizing locally or leaving the area altogether.
Diamonds.Weddings. Millennials are marrying later than previous generations, and by the time they do, it’s increasingly common for both partners to already own a home. I’ve seen couples sell two starter homes to buy one place together — that’s two transactions from a single life event.
Divorce.Not a happy reason to sell, but a real one. It doesn’t pause because rates are high.
Death.Also unavoidable. In 2023, trust and estate sales made up the largest share of my listing inventory — a clear sign that life events, not interest rate forecasts, were driving a meaningful chunk of the market.
Why didn’t higher rates freeze the Montgomery County market?
Because demand from the 5Ds didn’t disappear, and supply was already too tight to meet it. Reffkin’s national read matched what I was seeing locally — homes were still moving fast, with the average listing on the market only 17 days, and plenty still receiving multiple offers well above asking. Home values in Montgomery County were up 3.22% year-to-date during this window, even with affordability under pressure. That combination — rising values plus fast sale times — only happens when buyer demand still outweighs available inventory. For the bigger national picture on inventory and pricing trends, theNAR research and statistics pageis worth bookmarking.
What does this mean for buyers right now?
If you can afford to buy, waiting for rates to drop usually costs you more than it saves. Home values in Montgomery County kept climbing through this period regardless of rate levels, because the 5Ds kept demand steady while inventory stayed thin. My take has consistently been: if the numbers work for you today, buying sooner rather than later protects you from further price appreciation. And if rates do eventually fall into a range where refinancing makes sense, that’s always an option down the line — it’s a lot easier to refinance a mortgage than to un-buy a house you missed out on. If you’re weighing this decision, myguide to buying a homewalks through the process step by step.
What does this mean for sellers right now?
The market still favors you, even in a high-rate environment. Homes were still commanding multiple offers above list price throughout this stretch. If you’ve been thinking about a move in the next few years, there’s a strong case for selling now and renting for a while before your next step — especially if you’re eyeing retirement or relocation. That approach locks in your equity at today’s values instead of gambling on where prices go next. Curious what that looks like for your specific street or neighborhood? Check currentMontgomery County market statsto see how your area is trending.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Compass CEO say the housing market was going to crash?
No — Reffkin’s actual point was the opposite. He said inventory had bottomed and buyers still outnumbered sellers, which is not a crash signal. The slowdown people were feeling was about affordability and fewer transactions, not falling demand or collapsing prices.
What rate level does Reffkin think would meaningfully loosen inventory?
He pointed to the 5% range or lower as the level where you’d likely see homeowners who’ve been sitting on low locked-in rates start listing again in bigger numbers.
Are the 5Ds still relevant if rates change?
Yes. The 5Ds are life-driven, not rate-driven. Rates affect how many optional movers show up in a given year — they don’t affect the people who have to move because of a new baby, a graduation, a marriage, a divorce, or a death in the family.
Which of the 5Ds drove the most listings in Montgomery County?
In 2023, trust and estate sales tied to death made up the largest share of my listing inventory — more than any other single category.
Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in Montgomery County?
If your numbers work today, I generally don’t recommend waiting. Home values here have continued to rise even during high-rate periods, and you can always refinance later if rates improve. Waiting on rates while values keep climbing can end up costing more than it saves.
The rate environment will keep shifting — it always does. What doesn’t shift is that people’s lives keep moving, and that’s what actually drives this market. If you want a straight read on what that means for your specific situation, buying or selling, let’s talk it through.
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Sources and next steps
Verified local sources:Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;GCAAR housing market reports;FRED 30-year mortgage rate series;Maryland SDAT real property search.
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Expanded local research sources:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing statistics;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;FRED 30-year mortgage rates;Maryland SDAT real property search;Zillow Montgomery County home values;Montgomery Planning development;Montgomery Planning development review;MCATLAS zoning map;Montgomery Planning data catalog;Montgomery County permits;Visit Montgomery travel guide;Visit Montgomery restaurant directory;Tripadvisor Montgomery County things to do.
Contextual links for this video
Kevin site links:home selling guide;home buying guide;market stats;DMV Housing Market 2026: Is a Crash Coming or Are the Numbers Telling a Different Story?;Zillow Just Banned Private Listings — Here’s What Home Buyers and Sellers Actually Need to Know.
Outside research links for this video:GCAAR housing market reports;Maryland REALTORS housing stats;Realtor.com Montgomery County market data;Reddit discussion search for this topic;Google context search for this video.
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